Netanyahu and Eisenkot face uncertain path after Tuesday vote

Voters in Israel cast ballots on Tuesday in a general election that will determine the next prime minister. Current polls place incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu in a near tie with Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar Party. Neither candidate’s political bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats required to form a governing majority. This lack of a clear winner suggests a period of intensive negotiation between parties to build a coalition.

The campaign focused heavily on national security. Opponents criticized Netanyahu for the security failures leading to the October 7 attacks by Hamas, which killed nearly 1,200 people and left 251 hostages in Gaza. They demanded an independent commission of inquiry, a move Netanyahu has resisted. Netanyahu positioned himself as a security expert, citing military operations in the Middle East and his relationship with US President Donald Trump.

Eisenkot leads a group of parties known as the change bloc, which includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Netanyahu relies on his existing coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Both sides face constraints in forming alliances. Most major Jewish parties have ruled out working with the two Arab party blocs, although Arab citizens make up about one-fifth of the population.

In the final days of the campaign, Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu sought a military confrontation with Iran before the election. His military chief, Eyal Zamir, opposed the move. CNN later reported that Netanyahu attempted to persuade President Trump to authorize new strikes on Iran, but Trump declined. Netanyahu denied both reports. He also posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv to warn of the Iranian threat, a move Eisenkot called hysterical.

The issue of military conscription also dominated the debate. Netanyahu’s government has struggled to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox men in full-time religious study to serve in the military. Eisenkot pledged to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months. He supports Israeli settlements in the West Bank but aims to crack down on extremist settler attacks.

Exit polls are scheduled for release at 22:00 local time on Tuesday. Results will begin to trickle in as parties gather in their respective headquarters. Netanyahu’s Likud party will meet in Jerusalem, while Eisenkot’s Yashar Party will assemble in Tel Aviv. Votes from hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists may not be counted until Wednesday, potentially benefiting right-wing parties.

If no bloc can form a majority, Israel may face a political deadlock. In such a scenario, new elections would be called, and Netanyahu would remain interim prime minister. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 before successfully forming a government.