Coalition Math: Netanyahu Seeks Path to Stay Despite Opposition Majority

Benjamin Netanyahu faces a calculated gamble to remain in office after Israeli voters reduced his far-right coalition by roughly ten seats. Although the opposition now commands a firm majority of 64 seats in the Knesset, a widespread pledge among Jewish parties not to govern with Palestinian-led lists creates a structural barrier to forming a new government. As of Wednesday, October 28, this internal hesitation offers Netanyahu a viable route to extend his tenure as prime minister or serve as a long-term caretaker, potentially delaying the formation of a new cabinet.

The path to this stalemate began with a campaign that emphasized the divide between Jewish and Palestinian voters. Netanyahu’s posters frequently used the slogan "The right or Palestine," framing Palestinian citizens as a domestic threat. This strategy appeared designed to solidify his base while making it politically difficult for rivals to invite Palestinian-led parties into a governing coalition. The result is a legislature that has shifted further to the right, even as the opposition holds the numerical lead.

Public reaction to the outcome has split along lines of party leadership and voter sentiment. Yair Golan, who leads the center-left Democrats, dismissed the notion of a victory for the right. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count," Golan stated, urging his constituents to reject the separation of Jewish and Arab votes. He pointed out that Palestinian citizens constitute about 20% of the population. Similarly, musician Yali Sobol argued on social media that dropping racial barriers would reveal the opposition's victory to those who had not yet seen it.

Surveys suggest that voter preferences may be more open to cross-communal cooperation than their party leaders are willing to be. Researcher Eran Halperin cited data collected as polls closed, indicating that a clear majority of opposition voters supported forming a government with Ra’am, a Palestinian-led Islamist party, to remove Netanyahu from power. However, party leaders remained quiet on Wednesday. Gadi Eisenkot, the head of the largest opposition faction, has not explicitly ruled out such a partnership but has set conditions that make it nearly impossible for Palestinian parties to meet them.

Palestinian political leaders have signaled a willingness to bridge the gap. Yousef Jabareen, the head of the Joint List, stated that his party was prepared to help oust the current government and that change requires Jewish-Arab partnership. Ra’am demonstrated a similar intent by placing a former Jewish police chief in the second position on its electoral list. This approach echoes a precedent set three decades ago when Yitzhak Rabin relied on Palestinian support for a minority government, a move that is currently receiving less attention in modern debates.

Netanyahu downplayed the seat losses on election night, claiming that the right-wing bloc retained a decisive majority among the Zionist public. He called for a strong national-right government, ignoring the fact that his coalition’s mandate has been stripped by the vote. The opposition now faces a deadline to prove they can build a working government without the parties they previously refused to count. If they cannot, the state may face another round of elections or a prolonged period of caretaker rule.

The political landscape is further complicated by the existential nature of the election for many voters. Concerns over democratic erosion within the pre-1967 borders and the demand for a State Commission of Inquiry into the October 7 attacks drove record turnout among Palestinian citizens. These voters, who are watching relatives face violence in Gaza and the West Bank, turned out in large numbers to assert their presence in the state’s governance.