National Falls to 29% in Latest Poll, Closing Gap With Labour

National Party support has dropped to 29 percent in the latest national poll, narrowing the distance between the two major parties. Labour support remained unchanged at 27 percent. This marks a three-point decline for National from its result of 32 percent recorded in the previous week's survey.

The Green Party saw a slight decrease to 15 percent support. Te Pāti Māori fell to 0.1 percent, the lowest figure in the history of this polling series. The party is currently running a candidate-only campaign, a strategy that relies on winning specific electorate seats to influence the overall composition of Parliament.

Coalition partners for National show mixed but positive trends. ACT support rose one point to 12 percent, while New Zealand First gained two points to reach 10 percent. The Opportunity Party dipped one point to 6 percent support.

Seat projections based strictly on party vote percentages indicate a potential right-of-center majority. National would secure 34 seats, ACT 15 seats, and New Zealand First 12 seats. Together, these parties would hold 61 seats in Parliament, enough to form a government without external partners.

The mathematical outcome depends heavily on the performance of smaller parties in general electorates. If Te Pāti Māori wins four electorate seats and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one, the left bloc would total 56 seats. In that scenario, the Opportunity Party, with eight projected seats, would hold the balance of power and could choose which side forms the government.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon leads the preferred prime minister rankings with 24 percent support, a four-point increase from the prior week. Chris Hipkins trails at 18 percent. The poll surveyed 1,003 eligible voters between October 15 and October 19, 2026.

The maximum sampling error for the study is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Data was weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnicity, and education. The results represent a snapshot of current support rather than a prediction of final election outcomes.