Likud Divided on Election Night as Turnout Campaigns Intensify

Likud members are split on their chances of winning as Israel prepares to vote on Tuesday. A party source said internal confidence is mixed. Some members believe victory is certain, while others worry about high turnout among voters who oppose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The optimistic faction relies on data from Shlomo Filber, who manages the party's internal polling. The source described the situation as binary. "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other," the source said.

Party officials point to a major spending push by groups they call the "nonprofits affair on steroids." These organizations are directing large sums to mobilize voters for the opposition. The campaign has included social media ads, street signs, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. They are also trying to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote.

Likud sources claim these groups operate outside standard party financing rules. This gives anti-Netanyahu parties a wide support network. The sources said the Central Elections Committee focused too much on video limits and public resources while ignoring this nonprofit activity. However, party officials did not provide documentation for the funding amounts or proof that the activity was illegal.

Likud is also working to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller parties. They attempted to convince Brig. Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to drop out of the race. Winter leads the People of Israel party. Talks involved Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement supporting Winter. The effort to persuade him did not succeed.

The party is courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race after talks with Likud. During those discussions, the two sides considered legislation that would allow the Ahi party to name a deputy minister.

The election is scheduled for October 27. This date allows Netanyahu's government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided how they would cast their ballots.