Election 2026: 640,000 new ballots could swing 12 Knesset seats

Israeli citizens cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a general election where first-time voters hold a potential to influence up to 12 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 individuals aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate, placing their collective choices at the center of the upcoming legislative balance.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, stated that the institute co-sponsored a recent event with the Yigal Allon Center to engage these new citizens. She noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young demographic profile. Hoffman said that if turnout remains high, as previous research suggests, this cohort will make a measurable difference in the final seat distribution.

Data from the IDI survey conducted in May indicates strong intent to participate. Between 80% and 95% of prospective Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents expressed intent to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain to vote, and another 19% thought they would. This stands in contrast to the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 US presidential election.

National security and the cost of living are the top priorities for these voters. Hoffman observed that this generation experienced junior high during the COVID-19 pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of October 7. She stated that these young people are worried about their future. An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left.

Individual motivations vary across the political spectrum. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, said she is voting to change the future of the country. She is in an army preparation program in the Negev and is considering support for the Democrats or Yashar, both part of the opposition change bloc. Omer Gross of Jerusalem, currently in a program in the Golan, plans to back the Religious Zionist party, citing a need for a strong, secure Israel despite disagreements on Gaza policy.

Other voters focus on specific policy outcomes. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzliyah, will vote for the change bloc to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, prioritizes universal service but is leaning toward the Democrats on economic grounds, citing tuition and housing expenses. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shefa-Amra, seeks an Arab party to close resource gaps and tackle crime. He stated, 'I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home.'