1 Million Robots a Year: Tesla Sets Its Optimus Target

Tesla has begun assembling its Optimus humanoid robot on a high-volume production line, a significant step toward manufacturing the machine at a scale of one million units per year. The company confirmed in its third quarter shareholder letter that the robots coming off this line are the first to meet the quality standards required for a commercial product.

This new production line is located within Tesla's Fremont factory, in the space that previously manufactured Model S and Model X vehicles until this spring. To make room for robot production, the company cleared the old vehicle line in 46 days. On a recent earnings call, Elon Musk stated that most of the equipment needed for the targeted one-million-unit annual capacity is already installed at Fremont. He projected that output would ramp up toward roughly 20,000 robots a week.

Musk characterized this ramp-up as a classic S curve, noting that the growth of Optimus starts with a shallow slope. The company is currently focused on refining the robot's AI, electromechanical design, reliability, and service life. Tesla expects this work to be completed by the end of next year, at which point it plans to begin delivering Optimus units to outside companies for tasks that are dangerous, repetitive, or require around-the-clock operation.

A central challenge for Tesla is how to train its new fleet of robots. Unlike its vehicles, which send back real driving data from millions of cars on the road, Optimus does not have such a vast collection of units to gather training information from. To address this, Tesla is creating an Optimus Academy, where 10,000 to 20,000 robots will practice a wide range of tasks. The data they generate will be used to improve the next version of the AI model. Every unit that comes off the Fremont line will become a source of that training data.

Future versions of the robot will feature upgraded hardware. Tesla plans to install its AI5 chip in Optimus next year. Musk also announced that a new video showing Optimus completing tasks driven by AI, rather than pre-programmed motions, would be released within one or two months. He contrasted this with rival humanoid robots that only perform scripted routines, a demonstration he said would not hold up in a real-world environment.

The supply chain is being prepared for this expansion. In September, Tesla certified Tuopu, Joyson, and Sanhua as mass production partners for Optimus components. A much larger Optimus factory is also under construction at Giga Texas, where its steel frame is nearing completion, and Musk has set a long-term production target of 10 million robots a year for that facility.

Tesla executives also stated that the production costs for Optimus are trending toward the expected manufacturing cost of the Cybercab. The company is engineering the robot for volume production from the start. The design of the robot's hands remains the most challenging part of the build, and that is where much of the current engineering effort is focused.