DHS Noncitizen Voting Numbers Shrink as Prosecutions Remain Few

The federal government is investigating a massive number of voter records to find noncitizens on the rolls, but the number of criminal cases brought by the Justice Department is far smaller than the initial estimates. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin stated in July that his agency found 250,000 noncitizens in four states. That figure has since changed. DHS now says it has identified 300,000 potential noncitizens after reviewing more than 100 million records. Despite this large pool of names, the agency had opened 1,620 investigations as of mid-September. Those investigations have led to approximately 160 arrests. This total includes both criminal arrests and administrative immigration proceedings.

The administration has relied on a data-matching system to generate these lists. Election experts argue the system produces many false positives. Wren Orey, managing director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Elections Project, said the numbers often fall apart under scrutiny. He noted that there is no evidence of noncitizen voting happening at scale. The administration has expanded the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements, or SAVE, program. This tool compares voter lists to federal immigration records. Previously, states used SAVE for individual checks. Now, they can upload entire voter lists at once. The White House released figures last summer showing thousands of potential noncitizens in Republican-led states like Georgia and Texas. Local officials have had to verify these matches individually.

Texas provides a clear example of how the numbers shrink during verification. An initial review using the expanded SAVE system flagged 2,724 people as potential noncitizens. That number dropped by more than 500 when passport data was added to the system. Local election officials confirmed the citizenship of many others using state records. In Collin County, officials verified that 73 of the 109 flagged individuals were citizens. Bastrop County found four of eight people on its list were citizens. Hays County confirmed two of six people were eligible voters. By last month, the state elections office referred just 117 cases to state prosecutors. The Justice Department has brought only nine cases in Texas alleging noncitizen voting.

California has been the center of federal enforcement efforts. The Justice Department announced two dozen criminal cases last week. Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter said the department is conducting a rolling review. He suggested the number of cases will grow. The department also filed a civil lawsuit demanding that California verify the citizenship of 20,000 individuals before counting their ballots. McCotter described those 20,000 people as enough to fill a small stadium. He argued that each illegal vote cancels out the vote of a citizen. However, most defendants in the current prosecutions are legal permanent residents who have lived in the United States for decades. Many are charged with making false statements during naturalization rather than with voting itself.

County Recorder Justin Heap in Maricopa, Arizona, reviewed 60,000 people affected by a DMV software glitch. He identified 137 as potential noncitizens using SAVE. He said 60 of those individuals had voting records. County Attorney Rachel Mitchell later confirmed that 52 of the 60 voters were citizens. This reduced the number of confirmed noncitizen voters significantly. Ryan Germany, a former investigator for the Georgia Secretary of State, noted that many noncitizens end up on voter rolls due to software errors or simple mistakes. He said he has rarely seen a case where a noncitizen intentionally tried to vote. The law typically requires proof of intent for prosecution.

More than 800 DHS employees are working on the data review. A government attorney told a court this week that the team is processing the matching results. The Justice Department spokesperson said arrests continue to increase daily. They stated that every illegal registration and vote will be investigated. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber’s office has received about 300 grand jury subpoenas since August. A top prosecutor in Los Angeles argued that prosecutions serve as a deterrent. They noted that the standard for charging cases has shifted as federal offices across the country begin to file charges.